Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Via Star Tribune:
A new poll shows the push for the marriage amendment remains excruciatingly close and the fight over a voter ID measure is tightening.
Support for the marriage amendment is running a little behind and has lost support from a month ago, according to the newest sampling by Public Policy Polling, which shows that 46 percent of voters support the amendment and 49 percent are opposed.
Support for the amendment slipped 4 percent from last month. Constitutional amendments must surpass 50 percent of all ballots cast to be approved.
“We know that this race is neck and neck right now and will remain so,” said Kate Brickman, spokeswoman for Minnesotans United for All Families, the lead group opposing the measure. “Our campaign is focused on sparking conversations with Minnesotans about why marriage matters and why no one should be told it’s illegal to marry the person you love.”
Frank Schubert, campaign manager for Minnesota for Marriage, the lead group pushing the amendment, has said they remain confident they will win. In other states that have dealt with marriage amendments, the final polls dramatically under sampled amendment supporters when compared to final election results.
"Every time the voters get a chance to vote on marriage, they affirm marriage as between one man and one woman," said Chuck Darrell, Minnesota for Marriage spokesman. "We have a lot of work ahead of us, but we expect Minnesota to be the 32nd" state to adopt the measure.
The new poll found the greatest movement among independent voters, who now oppose the measure 52 to 42. A month ago, the results were nearly flipped, with 51 percent in favor and 42 percent against.
Women oppose the measure 51 percent to 43 percent in favor. Fully 49 percent of men are prepared to vote no compared to 47 who support the amendment.
The strongest opposition comes from young people, who say they plan to vote against the amendment 53 percent to 38 percent.
On Nov. 6, Minnesota voters will be asked whether to approve an amendment that would add language into the constitution defining marriage as union between a man and a woman.
Minnesota law already forbids same-sex marriage, but supporters argue it is necessary to prevent judges and politicians from changing the law without giving voters the final decision.
The fight over the voter ID amendment is getting tighter.
Fully 51 percent of Minnesotans support the measure and 43 percent of likely voters are opposed.
That's a big change from June, when 58 percent of voters said they support it and 34 percent were opposed.
Opposition is strengthening among Democrats, where 71 percent are opposed. Support among independents is sagging, though they still support it 52 percent to 41 percent. That's down a good deal from a month ago, when support was 62 percent to 33 percent.
"This fight may end up a lot closer than people initially expected," according to the polling company.
Public Policy Polling surveyed 937 likely Minnesota voters from Oct. 5 to 8. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percent.